COLUMN: Eroding supermajority in the Idaho Legislature (11/11/2006)

One of the things I was most interested in watching for on Election Day was any shifts in the balance of power in the Idaho Legislature. Would the supermajority held by the Republicans erode a little more, or not? If it eroded, would it erode enough to make a difference?

The election of 1994 swept Newt Gingrich and the Republicans into power in Washington DC. That election also swept Republicans in and Democrats out of power in Idaho. For most, if not all of the period since, Idaho’s Legislature has been known as “the most Republican” in the country. What distresses me most about this claim to fame is not the “Republican” part but the “most” part. One party, in this case the Republicans, has held supermajorities for over a decade now.

And I do mean supermajorities, with well over two-thirds of all Idaho legislators being Republicans. The Republican supermajority reached its peak during the 2001-2002 Legislature, when only nine out of 70 representatives and three out of 35 senators were Democrats, for an overall composition that was 89 percent Republican. Most recently, the 2005-2006 Legislature was made up of 13 Democrats and 57 Republicans in the House, and seven Democrats and 28 Republicans in the Senate, for an overall composition that was 81 percent Republican.

I think supermajorities like this are bad for democracy. It wouldn’t matter if the tables were reversed and the Democrats held the supermajority. Supermajorities are bad for democracy. They lead to important decisions — the people’s business — being made behind closed doors, in the caucuses of the supermajority party. They lead to an atmosphere in which information doesn’t matter, because the supermajority can do what it wants no matter what. Committee meetings become charades in which good pieces of proposed legislation never get out of the chairman’s drawer and flawed proposals get enacted into law without adequate public hearings.

So, what happened on Election Day here in Idaho? Did the supermajority erode a bit more?

It did. The Democrats gained six seats in the House and held steady in the Senate. The 2007-2008 Legislature will have 19 Democrats and 51 Republicans in the House, and seven Democrats and 28 Republicans in the Senate, for an overall composition that will be 75 percent Republican.

Is this enough of a change to make a difference? Certainly as the Democrats gain in strength, they become a more effective opposition. Because committee assignments are split between Republicans and Democrats proportional to the makeup of each chamber, the Democrats will pick up seats on the House committees, and be able to work more effectively in that arena. By my calculation, the Democrats should gain one seat (and the Republicans lose one) on the powerful Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee, which sets budgets; one seat on the Revenue and Taxation Committee, which hears tax proposals; and two seats on the House Education Committee.

Beyond this, however, we’ll have to wait and see what the more immediate impact of six more Democrats will be because, as with most change, this one brings with it both gains and losses. The Democrats gained six seats in the House and the Republicans lost six. Of the six Republicans defeated, three or four (depending on the issue) tended to be more moderate and two or three more conservative. A lot that happens in the Legislature depends on who the Republicans select as the next Speaker of the House. Have the ranks of the moderate Republicans been depleted enough to tip the scales in favor of the more conservative candidate for Speaker, most likely Rep. Lawerence Denney, R-Midvale, and away from the more moderate candidate, most likely Rep. Bill Deal, R-Nampa?

Selection of the Speaker in turn affects who will be appointed committee chairs. Of particular interest to residents of Latah County will be the new chair of the House Education committee — committee chair Jack Barraclough, R-Idaho Falls, was one of the six Republicans defeated. Will the new Speaker appoint another conservative like Barraclough, or someone more moderate like, perhaps, Latah County’s Rep. Tom Trail?

Legislative leadership will be elected in early to mid-December. Committee appointments will follow shortly thereafter. Then, and especially after the session starts in January, we will begin to learn the more immediate impacts of a 75 percent rather than an 80-plus percent Republican supermajority.

Over the longer haul, though, I have to think that the erosion of the supermajority is definitely a good thing.

* Judith L. Brown is an economist and director of the Idaho Center on Budget and Tax Policy. She lives in Moscow with her family and can be reached at jlbrown@turbonet.com.